John Leahy and Casey Mulligan. NBER Research Associates John Leahy and Casey Mulligan have been tapped for new roles in the ...

This paper examines the effects of tariffs along the supply chain using product-level data from a large U.S. wine importer in the context of the 2019-2021 U.S. tariffs on European wines. By combining ...

Utilizing large-scale surveys of over 27,000 respondents across 13 advanced and emerging market economies conducted between April and May 2024, we examine how knowledge, beliefs, and preferences ...

Cellphone bans in schools have become a popular policy in recent years in the United States, yet very little is known about their effects on student outcomes. In this study, we try to fill this gap by ...

We study how Elon Musk's polarizing and partisan actions have impacted Tesla vehicle sales in the United States. Using county-level, monthly data on new vehicle registrations, we leverage how changes ...

In addition to working papers, the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the NBER Reporter, the NBER Digest, the Bulletin on Health, and the Bulletin on ...

This paper studies how Knightian uncertainty about the distribution of future trade policies affects current trade flows using a dynamic trade model with a sunk cost of exporting. Qualitatively, trade ...

We use recent advances in natural language processing and large language models to construct novel measures of technology exposure for workers that span almost two centuries. Combining our measures ...

China’s unprecedented expansion of higher education in 1999, increased annual college enrollment from 1 million to 9.6 million by 2020. We trace the global ripple effects of that expansion by ...

This paper provides systematic evidence on the macroeconomic consequences of war using a new dataset covering 115 conflicts and 145 countries over the past 75 years. We document three main findings.

A canonical finding from earlier research is that the cross-sectional variance of income increases sharply with age Deaton and Paxson (1994). However, the trend in this age profile is not separately ...

In this paper, we quantify the distortions induced by career concerns within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). We combine a structural approach with an unanticipated change in the information ...