Merchant vessel incident near Duqm raises concerns. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30 at 23.5% YES.
Iraq signs $60B energy deals with Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and BP. US-Iran nuclear deal by August 13, 2026 at 2% YES.
Russia intensifies its attack on Ukrainian defenses in Donbass. Entering Sloviansk by December 31, 2026, now at 20% YES.
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